Cirium’s latest Fleet Forecast estimates that 46,500 new commercial passenger and freighter aircraft will be delivered worldwide over the next two decades, with a total value of $3.4tn.
The independent forecast, compiled by Cirium Ascend Consultancy, reflects shifting industry conditions, including supply chain limitations, delays in new programme certification, and continued geopolitical risks.
According to the analysis, the expected number of aircraft deliveries over the coming seven years has been reduced by 6% compared with last year’s projections.
This adjustment is primarily attributed to a slower increase in single-aisle aircraft production than previously anticipated.
Despite these near-term constraints, Cirium’s long-term outlook indicates a 1% increase in expected total deliveries over the 20-year period through 2044.
The report identifies Asia as the largest source of fleet growth, accounting for 45% of all projected deliveries, with most of this demand coming from China and India.
The forecast also projects that Airbus and Boeing will collectively supply 85% of all aircraft delivered and account for 92% of the total value.
COMAC is forecasted to meet 6% of global demand during the same period.
Currently, single-aisle aircraft comprise 71% of the global fleet, while both twin-aisle and regional jet numbers remain below pre-pandemic levels.
Cirium Ascend Consultancy global head Stephen Burnside said: “This year’s Cirium Fleet Forecast shows the global aviation industry is moving forward with confidence despite near-term headwinds.
“Long-term demand remains robust across every region, airlines continue to invest in fleet renewal, and OEMs continue to incrementally increase their R&D budgets in preparation for the next generation of aircraft families.
“The next chapter of aviation growth is being defined by the need for supply chain resilience, production capacity right sizing, product and service innovation, and a focus on efficiency.”
The Fleet Forecast encompasses aircraft with at least 30 seats and their freighter equivalents.
It does not include electric, hybrid, or hydrogen-powered aircraft, with Cirium noting that existing and future commercial aircraft development is expected to remain focused on conventional propulsion, increasingly using sustainable aviation fuel (SAF).
In August 2024, Cirium's analysis revealed that North American airlines experienced the most significant impact from the global IT outages in July of that year, with cancellations rising by 98%.
The firm’s regular report on on-time performance indicated that Europe, Asia Pacific, and North America faced the highest cancellation rates, while Latin America and the Middle East & Africa were minimally affected.
